El Nino?

http://www.svherald.com/articles/2009/07/23/news/doc4a680d04da311711223310.txt
We finally had some decent rains yesterday afternoon!

Weather patterns raise possibility of El Niño
By Derek JordanHerald/Review

Published: Thursday, July 23, 2009 3:19 AM MST

SIERRA VISTA — Showers such as Wednesday’s estimated maximum of 2 inches of rainfall will be less likely as the week progresses, a meteorologist said. But unusual weather could be in store for some time.The chances of significant precipitation will fall to 20 percent by the weekend, compared with the estimated 50 percent chance Wednesday, said Steven Reedy of the National Weather Service.

“This monsoon has been a little weird. We’re starting to see now what we were expecting in late June, early July,” he said. “In June, we were far more active than what we’d anticipated.”

Chatter around the National Weather Service office has raised a possibility: “The onset of El Niño is being looked at as a possibility of explaining the weather,” he said.

Warming surface waters of the Pacific have been singled out as the cause of past major weather events.The National Weather Service has measured surface water temperatures to be “about, on average, 1 to 2 degrees above normal,” Reedy said. That rise would be enough to cause the changes we’re seeing, he said.If El Niño does turn out to be in effect, we may have a wet winter.

“If this is a result of the El Niño, it may stifle some of the remaining precipitation for the rest of the monsoon, but it may help out in the winter,” he said.